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Colombo: Their campaign is back on track after the morale-boosting win over Pakistan but India can hardly afford to relax as they take on an erratic but still quite intimidating South Africa in their final Super Eight match tomorrow for a place in the semifinals of the ICC World Twenty20.
The fight for the second semifinal slot from group-2 is indeed intriguingly poised as both India and Pakistan have a fair chance of making the cut although Australia seems favourite at the moment.
India captain Mahendra Singh Dhoni admitted that devising a strategy without knowing the result of the Australia versus Pakistan game will be foolhardy as that will help them chart their course of action.
In case Pakistan (-0.426), who are a shade better than India (-0.452) in terms of net run-rate happen to win against Australia, Dhoni and his men will then have to win comprehensively against the South Africans in order to make it to the last four.
If Australia maintain a clean slate in the 'Super Eight' by beating Pakistan, the equation will be a lot easier for India as a win will be good enough. Even in case of a defeat against South Africa, India should ensure that they don't lose by a big margin as the net run rate will come into play with three teams tied with one win each.
South Africa have lost both their matches in contrasting manners -- a close defeat against Pakistan and a comprehensive one against Australia.
AB de Villiers men will now want to end the tournament on a respectable note and think of an outside chance of qualifying although their net run-rate might prove to be a deterrent.
Indian team will not only have to deal with a South African team that is keen to maintain its reputation as a world class outfit but also have to counter the threat of a man who knows about them like the back of his hand.
Gary Kirsten, inarguably India's most successful cricket coach, is now in the opposition ranks and will play a key role in trying to plot the downfall of the 'Men in Blue'.
Spin will again play a key role in the match and it will be interesting to see whether Dhoni would go for a second spinner in Harbhajan Singh by dropping senior pro Zaheer Khan.
With the seven-batsman policy paying results and a theory that Dhoni believes in, it remains to be seen whether he would rejig his bowling resources or stick to the winning formula.
The South African batsmen looked distinctly uncomfortable against the off-spin of Mohammed Hafeez and Saeed Ajmal in the match against Pakistan.
Even left-arm slow orthodox bowler Xavier Doherty troubled the Proteas in the last match which will certainly encourage Yuvraj Singh, who has turned into a utility 'bowling all-rounder' in this edition of the World T20.
The big question will be whether the Indian skipper will bring in Harbhajan who can be effective considering the South African line-up features two left-handers in Jean-Paul Duminy and Robin Peterson.
The opening woes, however, is a cause of concern for Dhoni as both Virender Sehwag and Gautam Gambhir have been scratchy in the tournament.
An interesting battle will would be on display when the Indians tackle the fiery pace of Dale Steyn and the disconcerting bounce that Morne Morkel will generate.
A complete semi-final Scenario
India
If India concede 160 and lose by more than three runs, their NRR will slip below that of South Africa. If India and Pakistan both win their matches, the margins of those results will decide which team goes through.
South Africa
South Africa are the only team that can be knocked out even before their match starts. For the second time in a row, they will be hoping Pakistan lose because if Pakistan win the first match on Tuesday, it will mean curtains for South Africa.
However, if Australia do beat Pakistan, South Africa have a fair chance of making it to the next round, thanks to poor NRRs of India and Pakistan. As mentioned above, if South Africa score 160 and win by more than three runs, their NRR will go above India's, enough to qualify provided Australia have won all their matches. The advantage for South Africa and India is that they play the last game of the group, and will thus have an exact knowledge of what they need to do to qualify.
Teams from
India: MS Dhoni (captain & wk), Gautam Gambhir, Virender Sehwag, Virat Kohli, Yuvraj Singh, Rohit Sharma, Suresh Raina, Ravichandran Ashwin, Lakshmipathy Balaji, Piyush Chawla, Ashok Dinda, Harbhajan Singh, Zaheer Khan, Irfan Pathan, Manoj Tiwary.
South Africa: AB de Villiers (captain & wk), Hashim Amla, Richard Levi, Jacques Kallis, Farhaan Behardien, JP Duminy, Faf du Plessis, Johan Botha, Albie Morkel, Morne Morkel, Justin Ontong, Wayne Parnell, Robin Peterson, Dale Steyn, Lonwabo Tsotsobe.
Match facts
Tuesday October 2, 2012 (day/night)
Start time 1930 local (14:00 GMT, 7.30pm IST)
